Stimulated by favorable policy news, A-shares opened higher across the board today, with indices, sectors, and individual stocks rising in tandem. Most importantly, the trading volume in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has gradually increased, and the profit effect of individual stocks has significantly improved, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising at the close, creating an atmosphere akin to a bull market. Has the bottom of the A-share market truly been confirmed?

Before analyzing whether the bottom of today's A-shares has been confirmed, it is essential to analyze and discuss the market conditions of today's trading and the actual situation of A-shares from multiple aspects. Only through comprehensive consideration and analysis can we determine whether the bottom of A-shares has been confirmed. Let's discuss from the following aspects:

Aspect one: As everyone knows, the real catalyst for today's A-shares' volume increase and rise is the "China Securities Regulatory Commission's announcement to fully suspend the securities lending business." Stimulated by this positive news, the bulls launched a strong counterattack, igniting the fuse for today's comprehensive rise in A-shares, which is the root cause of today's A-shares' increase.

Aspect two: The sustainability of A-shares' rise is worth considering. The day before yesterday, A-shares stopped falling at 2,904 points and rebounded, followed by a significant upward movement. Today, they continued to rise stimulated by policy benefits. If this upward trend can be sustained for a period, the bottom of A-shares has been confirmed. On the contrary, if today's rise is just a one-day event, it will continue to search for the bottom, and today's volume increase is still just a rebound in the middle of a downtrend.

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Aspect three: The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is gradually increasing, which is a good sign. The volume has increased from 580 billion in recent times to over 700 billion today. However, a volume of over 700 billion is still insufficient. To truly confirm the bottom of A-shares and sustain an upward trend, the trading volume in both markets must return to over 1 trillion. Only a trillion-yuan transaction volume can provide the momentum to push A-shares upward.

Aspect four: Pay attention to the rotation of heavyweight sectors and small and medium-sized thematic stocks. Today, the heavyweight sector performed poorly, especially banks and insurance companies, which did not rise but fell. Without the cooperation of these two sectors, it is difficult to confirm a significant rise in A-shares after the bottom is confirmed. Secondly, small and medium-sized thematic stocks did perform well today, but the downside is that many individual stocks lack volume. The inability of individual stocks to keep up with the volume is also a headache.

In summary, based on the analysis of the above four aspects, whether today's rise in A-shares has confirmed the bottom depends on the leading rise of heavyweight sectors, the maintenance of volume above 1 trillion, and most importantly, the sustainability of the rise. It must not be a one-day event. If it turns out to be a one-day event, today's rise in A-shares should be considered a rebound in the middle of a downtrend, and the bottom cannot be confirmed. Please be aware of this.

Can A-shares continue to rise significantly tomorrow?

Although today's A-shares performed well throughout the day, creating an atmosphere of a bull market, this rise has not yet confirmed the bottom and has not met the conditions for a stop-and-reverse trend. Therefore, it is inferred that A-shares cannot continue to rise significantly tomorrow.

It is predicted that tomorrow A-shares will face resistance after a slight rise and then enter a differentiated trend. Sectors with volume and popularity will continue to rise, while most passively rising sectors and individual stocks will return to a falling trend. Thus, the general trend for tomorrow is expected to be "strong at first and weak later," and a sustained significant rise is absolutely not possible.Why can we be certain that A-shares will not soar tomorrow? Based on the actual situation of A-shares today, the following two major reasons are sufficient to prove that A-shares will not surge tomorrow.

Reason one: The rise in A-shares today is not a confirmation of the bottom, nor is it a reversal of the decline. It is more of a rebound in the middle of a downtrend, and it is highly likely that after the rebound, there will be another search for the bottom. Precisely because A-shares are in a rebound phase of a downtrend, coupled with the pressure of the 20-day moving average above the Shanghai Composite Index, it puts pressure on the rise of A-shares tomorrow, with the pressure from various sides suppressing the continued rise of A-shares.

Reason two: Tomorrow, sectors and individual stocks will inevitably diverge, and the divergence will be severe. Once the market enters a phase of divergence, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will intensify, and it will not support the continuous rise of A-shares. It is important to note that today, nearly 5,000 stocks rose, and many of these were oversold rebounds and were passively lifted. Once the market weakens tomorrow, most of the weak stocks will return to a downward trend, adding pressure to the secondary market.

In summary, although A-shares experienced a significant fluctuation and a comprehensive rise in the market today, this kind of rise is still considered a rebound in the middle of a downtrend, and such a rise will not last. Precisely because today's A-shares were a short-term rebound, it is possible that A-shares will once again experience a divergent and fluctuating decline tomorrow, and it is likely that another batch of chase-high chips will be trapped. Therefore, everyone should avoid chasing highs.

The stock market is unpredictable, but in general, one should follow the trend and act accordingly. Do not be elated by gains, nor be saddened by losses; develop strategies according to the market conditions presented.