A-share market staged an "unexpected" performance today, which made the market and investors marvel at the control power of the super large capital!

Here's what happened: in the early session, super large capital first smashed the weight stocks, causing the Shanghai Composite Index to suddenly dive and fall, allowing small and medium-sized thematic stocks to gradually warm up; when the index fell to 2920 points, the savior from the securities firms arrived, unusually lifting the market and reversing the trend of A-shares for the day, ultimately staging a thrilling bottom-fishing and rebounding scenario.

Following today's widespread rebound after the bottom-fishing in A-shares, many investors may change their perspectives again. Who is driving this rebound? Has the market really stopped falling and stabilized? With these two questions in mind, let's analyze today's market from the following aspects to find the answer to whether the market has stopped falling and stabilized.

Aspect one: The savior of A-shares today was the "securities sector." The securities sector abnormally lifted during the session, with Jinlong Shares leading the collective lift of the securities sector, reversing the downward trend of A-shares today. However, it's a pity that the lift of the securities sector could not be sustained, indicating that the securities sector was just a temporary rescue. Don't have too high expectations for the securities sector, so it's difficult for A-shares to stop falling and stabilize today.

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Aspect two: Although it's good that A-shares rebounded widely after bottom-fishing today, the downside is that the strength of the rebound is not strong, and the extent of the widespread increase is too small. Most importantly, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets did not bring volume, still belonging to the volume contraction rebound; there is such a law in the stock market, a rebound without volume is just "playing tricks," which means that a rebound without volume is "hollow" and "not optimistic," and can be easily hit back to its original state at any time.

Aspect three: The current environment for A-shares is still too poor. Under such circumstances, a rebound after bottom-fishing cannot change the overall environment. For example, the trend of major indexes is still sliding down, investors' confidence has collapsed, the volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is still shrinking, and the short-selling force is still exerting its power. If these environments do not improve, it is more difficult for A-shares to stop falling and stabilize than to pick stars from the sky!

Aspect four: Trends do not deceive. The trend of major indexes is downward, and the moving averages continue to move down, and the center of the decline has not changed. Similar to today, the Shanghai Composite Index once again set a new low of 2920 points, which is not a stopping point. The real stopping point is still below 2920 points. The trends of other indexes are also still sliding down, and such trends will continue to fall and seek the bottom.

How will A-shares perform next week?

The above analysis has shown that the rebound after bottom-fishing is not a sign of stopping and stabilizing, but just a temporary "catch-up" market. Next week, it is likely to return to its original state, so the outlook for A-shares next week remains pessimistic.

Predicting that next week's A-shares will follow a "lure and then harvest" pattern, which means that the market will start a false rise in the middle of the decline again, attracting a group of bottom-fishing rescuers. After these funds enter, the bears will start to exert their strength again, which will lead A-shares to the next level, continuing the current round of phased decline and bottom-seeking. However, investors should not be overly pessimistic; a big fall is not advisable, but a small fall is inevitable.This implies that the trend of A-shares next week is quite clear: first, it will offer sweets to retail investors, and then, after they have tasted the sweetness, it will start to slap them and cut the "leeks" (a term used to describe retail investors who are often left holding the bag after a market downturn). The reasons are as follows:

Firstly: After A-shares bottomed out and rebounded today, leading to a general rise, it is a typical case of "catch-up rally and catch-down correction." The so-called catch-up rally refers to individual stocks, while the catch-down correction refers to the Shanghai Composite Index. Once the "catch-up rally and catch-down correction" phase ends early next week, the market will enter a pattern of "protecting the market while harvesting leeks." In other words, after today's catch-up rally in individual stocks, a collective decline is expected, so let's wait and see.

Secondly: The current phase of adjustment in A-shares will continue, with only intermittent rebounds during the downtrend. Today's rebound, which is a general rise after bottoming out, is part of such an intermittent rebound. This kind of rebound is considered a "bull trap," and after the trap, it's time to cut the leeks. Only when A-shares can no longer fall and the leeks have given up, will the market truly stop falling and stabilize.

In summary, today's A-share market has two characteristics: a surprising but safe rebound after bottoming out and a general rise. The real contributors behind this rebound are the securities sector and the collective recovery of individual stocks. However, this rebound is temporary and merely an intermittent rebound in the downtrend, not a true market stabilization. Therefore, it is essential to view today's A-share trend rationally.

Finally, the outlook for next week's A-share market is not optimistic. One must be wary of the possibility of ultra-large capital setting another bull trap and then trapping investors. For safety reasons, it is advised that everyone should continue to manage risks and avoid blindly bottom-fishing, as it is not yet the best time to do so.